NFL Week 12 betting nuggets

Here’s a look at some of the picks in NFL Week 12.

The “nfl week upset predictions” is a list of NFL picks for the upcoming week.

NFL Week 12 betting nuggets

This season, road teams have dominated, covering over 59 percent of the time. That is on pace to become the largest total in Super Bowl history. In addition, road clubs are four games over.500. It would be the first time since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger that a road club has had a winning outright record in consecutive seasons.

This week has among of the tightest lines we’ve seen all season, with an average line of 3.5 tied for sixth-tightest in Super Bowl history.

The San Francisco 49ers will kick a field goal against the Minnesota Vikings in one of those games. Kyle Shanahan has lost nine consecutive games as a home favorite, the longest such run in Super Bowl history. In all, he is 3-16-2 against the spread.

NFL: MVP and Super Bowl futures to keep an eye on NFL: Each team’s win-loss record against the spread CFB: Ohio State’s Stroud is a Heisman Trophy favorite. Gonzaga is favored to win the championship again again, according to CBB. Nets are the favorite in the NBA, and bookmakers are backing them. Lakers Best bets in the NBA for the 2021-22 season MLB: Dodgers are the favorites to win the ’22 World Series NHL: Season’s best long-term bets NHL: Keep an eye on the Stanley Cup odds as they change.

Chalk it up to ESPN.

The New England Patriots, on the other hand, hold the league’s longest current cover run, having won and covered five straight games following a 2-4 start. They were 12-1 after Week 6 to win the division, and they are presently in first position. The Tennessee Titans, on the other hand, are 5-0 as underdogs this season and are attempting to match the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals as the only teams to win their first six games as underdogs in a single season.

Seasonal Statistics

This season, the favorites are 8-7 ATS (5-8 SU) and 70-92-1 ATS (98-64-1 SU)

This season, road clubs are 11-4 ATS (8-7 SU) and 96-68-1 ATS (84-80-1 SU)

10-5 underdogs (92-71-2 this season)

Green Bay (9-2), Dallas (8-2), and Arizona have the best ATS records (8-3)

New York Jets (2-8), Washington (3-7), and Tampa Bay have the worst ATS records (3-6)

Kansas City and Tampa Bay are favorites in every matchup.

Detroit, Houston, and the New York Jets will all be underdogs in every game (Houston favored this week)


The Tennessee Titans will face the New England Patriots (-7) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

  • New England has won five consecutive games, the league’s longest current stretch.

  • This season, Tennessee has gone 5-0 as an underdog. Only the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals are the only team in Super Bowl history to win their first six games as underdogs (started 6-0).

  • This season, Tennessee is 4-1 ATS on the road.

  • Since the start of last season, New England is 0-5 ATS when playing on more than six days off.


The New York Jets will face the Houston Texans (-2.5) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

  • To this far in the season, no club has been favored in a game. Detroit is the only other club that has yet to be a favorite.

  • This season, New York is 2-8 ATS, including 0-3 ATS when the spread is fewer than six points.

  • This season, New York is 0-5 ATS on the road.

  • With Tyrod Taylor at the helm, Houston is 3-1 ATS this season. Since 2017, Taylor has gone 9-1 ATS in his past ten starts, including playoffs.


The Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) take on the New York Giants at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

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  • Daniel Jones is 5-9 ATS as a home underdog in his career, but he’s won his previous two games as one.

  • No one has gone over the total in any of New York’s five home games (0-4-1).

  • Four of the previous five meetings have been covered by New York, and six of the last eight have been covered by the city. In each of those games, Philadelphia has been the favorite.

  • Since the start of last season, New York has gone 5-0 ATS while playing on fewer than six days off.


The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) will face the Indianapolis Colts at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

  • This season, Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS on the road.

  • As an underdog, Indianapolis has covered four consecutive games.

  • This season, Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS against clubs with winning records.


The Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

  • This season, eight of Jacksonville’s ten games have gone under the total.

  • Since the start of last season, Atlanta is 3-6 ATS as a favorite, and 9-17 ATS since 2018.

  • With five consecutive covers, Atlanta is 6-1 ATS all-time versus Jacksonville.


The Carolina Panthers (-2) will face the Miami Dolphins at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

  • When the line is between +3 and -3, Miami is 0-3 ATS this season.

  • Three games in a row, Miami has covered the spread.

  • Under Matt Rhule, Carolina is 10-3 ATS on the road.


At 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5).


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  • Against Cincinnati, Ben Roethlisberger is 6-1 straight up and ATS as an underdog. In his career versus Cincinnati, Roethlisberger is 23-12 ATS, including the playoffs, but he has lost both of the past two games outright as a favorite.

  • Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in three of its previous four home games.

  • Zac Taylor has a 3-6 ATS record as a favorite and a 1-3 ATS record at home.


The Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) will face the Denver Broncos at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday.

  • When the line is between +3 and -3, Denver is 0-4 ATS in its previous four games.

  • Since 2010, Denver has gone 9-2 ATS after a bye, including 2-0 ATS under Vic Fangio.

  • This season, eight of Denver’s ten games have gone under the total.

  • Los Angeles is 0-3 ATS in its previous three games as a favorite, and 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.


Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3).

  • Minnesota has had the most one-score games in the NFL, with nine, including three overtime games and five games decided by three points or less.

  • Since the start of last season, San Francisco has dropped nine straight games as a home favorite. In the Super Bowl era, it is the longest losing streak as a home favorite. This season, San Francisco is 0-4 as a home favorite. Shanahan is 8-13 as an outright favorite at home, the second-worst record of any coach in Super Bowl history (min. 15 games). As a home favorite, he is 3-16-2 ATS, the lowest record of any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 10 games).

  • This season, Minnesota is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

  • Minnesota has won four consecutive road games (4-1 ATS this season).


Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, the Los Angeles Rams (-1) take on the Green Bay Packers.


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  • Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 8-0 ATS following a defeat in three seasons.

  • Green Bay has won seven consecutive games, including all six against Aaron Rodgers.

  • This season, Green Bay is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records. The total was under in all four games.

  • Aaron Rodgers is 10-6 versus Matthew Stafford in ATS games, but Stafford has covered four of the previous five.

  • Prior to this week, Aaron Rodgers has only been a home underdog six times in his career, including the playoffs. The last time this happened was in Week 2 of 2018, when Green Bay drew a 29-29 draw with Minnesota. Rodgers has a lifetime record of 4-1-1 ATS and 3-2-1 outright as a home underdog.


At 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Cleveland Browns will face the Baltimore Ravens (-3.5).

  • This season, Baltimore is 2-6 ATS as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in Lamar Jackson starts (all as at least a three-point favorite).

  • The past three encounters have been covered by Baltimore.

  • Since the start of last season, Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in division games and 5-14 ATS in conference games.


Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Football Team (-1).

  • This season, Seattle games have gone under 8-1-1, including 5-0-1 after a defeat and 6-0 in conference games. Russell Wilson has a 13-2 record in his previous 15 regular-season starts.

  • This season, home underdogs have gone 4-0 against the spread on Monday Night Football.

  • Since the start of last season, Seattle is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite (1-6 ATS in last seven games).

  • Seattle is 2-5 ATS in Russell Wilson starts this season, with the previous three times failing to cover.

  • In its previous 13 Monday Night games, Washington is 2-11 ATS. Last year’s surprise victory in Pittsburgh ended a nine-game ATS and outright losing run on Mondays.

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